In little over a fortnight, Argentines will head to the polls in an election which, many believe, will threaten President Cristina Kirchner’s comfortable majority in Congress. On 28th June, half the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and a third of those that comprise the Senate will be up for election. Campaigns are now well under way, though their progress has been marred by scandal and controversy.
President Kirchner’s husband, and former head of state, Néstor Kirchner, stated that Argentines’ choice on election day would be simple: “us or chaos.” He warned of a return to the crisis of 2001 if the Front for Victory Party (FPV) cannot continue implementing its agenda and steering the country through the current global economic crisis. The Peronist alliance is positioned towards the left of the political spectrum, supports a ‘neo-keynesian’ economic policy and aims to distribute wealth more equally.
The opposition has attacked the government’s ‘socialist’ position, most recently after president of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, nationalised companies in which Argentine corporation Techint had majority interests. Elisa Carrió, the leader of opposition party Civic and Social Coalition (CC), asserted that “this is a continuation of a policy of confiscation, which may well be the Kirchnerist model implemented after the 28th June”. She insisted that “we must fight, so that Argentina does not turn into a confiscatory populist state”.
The government’s main opposition in Buenos Aires province, the right-wing Pro alliance, is formed by Buenos Aires’ mayor Mauricio Macri, Felipe Solá and Francisco de Narváez. The alliance is constantly rumoured to be teetering on the edge of collapse, but is also highly critical of the ruling party. Beyond that, it has been noted that it is difficult to discover Pro’s political agenda.
Macri originally marketed the alliance as “an alternative… that is based on less confrontation, less aggression and more investment”. They prefer to concentrate, often aided by the media, on whipping up controversy over Néstor Kirchner’s “unethical” election tactics.
In a desperate attempt to ensure that his wife does not lose her majority in the lower house, Kirchner himself, along with other political heavyweights, Buenos Aires’ province governor Daniel Scioli and head of cabinet Sergio Massa, are heading up FPV’s ballot list in the province.
Scioli and Massa already hold executive posts, making it unlikely they would take up their seats in the Chamber of Deputies were they to win. They both pledged in writing to “eventually” take up the positions, which was enough to convince the National Electoral Chamber to rule in their favour, deflating the speculation surrounding their legitimacy as competitors.
Néstor Kirchner also received the National Electoral Chamber’s backing after being embroiled in a scandal over his official residence, listed as Río Gallegos, Santa Cruz province, which would have prevented his candidacy in Buenos Aires. The president’s official residence in Olivos has now been accepted as his Buenos Aires’ home.
Alberto Dalla Vía was the only judge of the three involved in the rulings to oppose a formal recognition of the trio’s candidacies. He accused them of “breaking the representative system as defined in the national constitution”. Opponents Macri, De Narváez and Solá are resolved to continue working to overturn the verdict, which will shortly be appealed to the supreme court, condemning the way the way FPV is “manipulating the election”.
Néstor Kirchner has chosen to concentrate his efforts in the densely populated Buenos Aires province, home to 38% of Argentina’s population; it is allocated 70 of the seats available in the lower house. This can be seen as a tactical move by the ruling party, which alienated rural voters last year, particularly in Santa Fe and Córdoba, after a lengthy battle to implement legislation that would have increased taxes on agricultural exports.
Polls predict that the government is almost certain to lose the elections in the key provinces of Santa Fe, Mendoza, Entre Rios and Córdoba, which would leave the president with around 120 loyalists in Congress.
The opposition are also dominating in the capital. Gabriela Michetti, of Pro, is in first place but remains vulnerable to a comeback by the CC. Kirchnerist candidate Carlos Heller is, unexpectedly, being forced to battle for third place with Fernando Solanas, a candidate from the left-wing South Project party.
Néstor Kirchner’s strategy in Buenos Aires province, however, seems to be succeeding. He is currently in the lead with between 34% and 40% of the vote, according to calculations made by three separate sources. The same calculations put Pro in second place, with an estimated 25-29%. Luis Patti, running from within his prison cell alongside former presidents Carlos Menem and Eduardo Duhalde, is only expected to collect 3% of the vote.
Even If FPV are unsuccessful in Buenos Aires province, it seems likely that President Kirchner’s majority will be dramatically reduced. Alberto Fernández, FPV’s secretary general, believes that the president will be able to use her legislative experience to “promote a system of dialogue that will allow her to reach consensus on various issues”. He added that the opposition is so fragmented that, even if the ruling party’s majority is weakened, it “does not guarantee that they will be able to unite against the government”.
Francisco de Narváez hopes that a weakened FPV will establish “a new equilibrium, in which the president will have to go to Congress to discuss major issues, something that she’s not doing at the moment”.
Miguel de Luca, president of the Argentine Society of Political Analysis, is sceptical about the Kirchners’ potential to change their leadership style, whatever the outcome, as it is something “forged over many years of a political career”. He foresees two possible scenarios: “a victory by more than five points in Buenos Aires province, which would give the Kirchners sufficient margin to appear successful and maintain their current support base. A smaller margin would intensify the erosion of Kirchnerist power, manifesting itself in their allies’ rapid desertion and the clear positioning of Peronist, but not Kirchnerist, candidates for the 2011 presidential elections.”