Do not blame Cristina Fernández de Kirchner for being obvious and predictable. On elections night 28th October, just after 10pm and as the votes were still being counted, the then first lady and would-be president-elect faced the Evita-hungry cameras to announce that “Argentina has voted.” No kidding, many of us thought. She then went on to claim victory based on exit polls and a mere ten percent of the votes counted. There was no need to wait for the final countdown, which would finally land her over 45% of the votes to score a landslide first round victory. Cristina was just as obvious as the situation was. And it is not only her, but also Argentines who should be blamed for that.
Call it the easy-way-out syndrome, if you like. Argentines, their minds likely still filled with pot-banging and street-riot memories only a stone throw’s distance away in history, voted for things to continue as they are. The economy is growing, poverty is shrinking, presidents are not exiting the Casa Rosada in a helicopter every second day. The outcome might truly have been the most boring presidential election in the history of a country whose political volatility is a world-known trade-mark. But the question left floating around is whether the elected president, the wife of the husband, will be up to deliver what the voters want: status quo.
The world out there surely does not understand Argentina, especially Peronism (the party both outgoing president Néstor and incoming president Cristina Kirchner belong to) and its illegible ideological twists. But the observers who see a Hillary rather than an Evita in the president-elect are truly hoping some things will change under Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Her campaign slogan was, after all, Change Has Just Begun. Cristina looks indeed more refined and internationally-inclined than her lame duck husband. Cristina, the foreign eye sees, enjoys meeting world leaders in the run-up to her presidential victory, while Néstor only looks comfortable making ardent multi-targeted speeches to cheering masses. Cristina cares about looks, style and protocol. Conclusion: Cristina is going to please the world with her charm and restore Argentina’s shattered post-crisis and defaulted image.
Fine, except for one thing: that is not what Argentines voted for.
Cristina, in fact, will have to walk along the thin line that divides a governing style of her own and the promise of delivering more of the same. More of the same, in Argentine public language, means only one thing: money in the pockets of both the rich and the poor. Washington, Paris and Berlin might be delighted at the looks and intelligence of the first lady cum president. But the suburbs of Buenos Aires will not think twice over turning its back on her if the cash flow wanes, not matter how articulate and rational her public speeches are or how fancy the clothes she wears. If not ask the polite Fernando de la Rúa, who angry Argentines ejected from government only two years after endowing him with 48% of the votes.
If anywhere in Kirchnerite circles or elsewhere ever dreamt of introducing major change under a Cristina government, they were quick to come to their senses. A football coaching truth goes that you don’t change a winning team if you don’t have to. Cristina’s Cabinet, announced 14th November, leaves the backbone of the Néstor administration, though rusty, mostly untouched. Excuse the obvious analogy: Argentina’s first-ever elected female presidency will have to wear as little make-up as possible if it wants to live up to its mission and, ultimately, survive.