Old people are genuinely dangerous. ‘How?’ one might ask. The deadly combination of a loss of physical faculties and a driving licence? The constant armoury of knitting needles and hefty Zimmer frames carried by the average pensioner? Well, perhaps, but no. The real threat that the elderly pose is their growing abundance.
Indeed, according to the Civil Association of Integrated Medical Activities (ACAMI): “The ageing of the population represents the biggest economic and social challenge of the 21st century in Argentina.”
What is an Ageing Population?
An ageing population constitutes a shift in the distribution of a country’s population towards greater ages and therefore an increase in the average age. The Economist reported in April 2002 that: “The characteristic shape of the human population since time immemorial – an age pyramid with lots of children at the base – is inverting into one that will eventually have relatively older people at the top.”
Whilst the phenomenon is seen in varying degrees across the globe (the level of ageing largely correlating with the economic development of a nation), there are two factors that contribute to the ageing of the population universally. These are declining birth and death rates and, although each factor can be found contributing to an ageing population singularly, in the majority of cases the two are found together. A dwindling replenishment of the young population combined with a growing life expectancy are what primarily cause the ageing of a population.
Argentina’s Situation
According to the National Institute for Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), in 1990 9% of Argentina’s population was over 65, today that figure sits at 10% and it is expected that it will grow rapidly to reach 19% by 2050.
This ageing corresponds to a drop in the rates of birth and mortality: in 1990 the birth and death rates sat at 21.3 and 8.2 (per 1,000 of the population) respectively, while today they are 17.5 and 7.8 and, although estimations are not available for 2050, INDEC estimates that by 2015 the birth rate will fall to 16.8 and the death rate to 7.7. As a consequence, the life expectancy has grown in Argentina from 72.13 years in 1990, to 75.24 today and is predicted to be 76.13 by 2015.
This changing demography is influenced by a range of socio-economic factors.
Developments in the standard of living conditions and healthcare such as medicine, housing, air quality and nutrition have extended the life expectancy in Argentina while bettered education and family planning have reduced the birth rate. Despite these productive technological advances, theories about the ill-effects of modern medicine and technology on fertility rates abound. This undesired consequence of modern science is also contributing towards lowered birth rates.
Economically, the escalating expense of living costs and having children, inflexibility of work hours and the instability of jobs in an increasingly competitive workplace are discouraging would-be parents.
Changing social attitudes have also affected the ageing of the population. Importantly, the perception of ‘the family’ has transformed with higher divorce rates, less marriage and less emphasis on breeding while the role of women has simultaneously changed, with more women choosing to pursue professions and less electing to have children.
This goes hand in hand with increased secularisation as Rafael Rofman, a senior economist at World Bank, explains: “In past times of social taboos, the church helped make access to contraception more restricted but, fortunately, this has been reduced.” Indeed, according to a recent investigation carried out by the Gino Germani Institute at the University of Buenos Aires, 80% of Argentines use contraception, dramatically lowering birth rates.
Birth and death rates aside, the other fundamental influence upon Argentina’s ageing population is migration because, like falling birth rates, losing any of the younger half of the public to emigration amounts to an ageing population. According to the National Migration Office, 1.3m Argentines currently live outside of Argentina.
Clarín reported that there was an exodus in 2002 as 91,370 Argentines left from Ezeiza airport alone in the wake of the financial crisis. The rate of emigration ebbed as the economy rebuilt, but has increased again, reaching 37,502 this year as Argentines leave in search of better studying opportunities and higher wages, a movement labelled ‘the brain drain’ as so many qualified scientists and technicians are leaving. This emigration of the ‘employed sector’ represents a grave economic threat in Argentina.
Economic Problems
The changing ratio of elderly, and therefore retired, citizens to those young and employed spells economic difficulty for Argentina, as Rofman told me: “The effect is similar to that in other countries. The ageing implies a progressive increase in the dependency ratio (the number of retired people for every 100 employed people), and the consequent pressure exerted on the social and health systems.”
According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), Argentina’s dependency ratio is currently 57.7 per 100 but is forecast to reach 58.7 per 100 by 2050. Although this increase seems nominal, it will become harder to maintain living standards for the dependent population as the relatively shrinking workforce is put under strain. Rofman explained that this effect will be palpable: “In the medium term, people will definitely have to work more as health and life expectancy improve.”
However, questions have been raised over the implications of the dependency ratio as it does not account for the fact that, while there may be a growing proportion of the population over 65, the same medical improvements that are perpetuating lives are also improving the health and work capacity of these people. The age at which one becomes ‘dependent’ is not black and white, as Rofman suggests: “Today a 55 year old is considered ‘young’, a few decades ago that was considered old. This trend will surely continue”.
In countries experiencing a rapidly ageing population, such as Britain, there is talk of exploiting the increased labour capacity that modern living standards bestow upon the over-60s by introducing lower intensity employment opportunities called ‘bridge careers’. Although ageist recruitment prejudice must be considered, this would improve the situation twofold: helping the would-be retired afford a living and reducing pressure upon the younger workers. So the question lingers over whether the increasing dependency ratio does signal financial trepidation or just a skewed point of view.
Britain is also trying to mitigate economic disaster by making personal pension plans obligatory. However, with the furore over President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s proposed nationalisation of pensions ongoing and allegations of her own personal financial gain from the situation rife, it seems that making provisions for the ageing population of the future is not currently on the agenda.
Healthcare
It is an ironic case of ‘biting the hand that feeds it’, but it is principally the healthcare system that is causing the ageing of the population by gifting people with longer lives and it is principally the healthcare system that suffers.
According to ACAMI, the over-65s require 3.3 times more medical resources than the rest of the population, the 75-85 bracket 4.5 times more and the over-85s 5.5 times more. These figures represent a huge financial cost to Argentina’s health services when it is considered that between 1950 and 2005 the population between 66 and 79 has increased by 380% and the population over 80 by 882.8% in Argentina.
However, the impact of a growing number of elderly upon the healthcare system cannot be gauged in numerical terms alone. There will be a greater responsibility upon families to care for their elderly relatives as the health services become stretched and this will come at a time when the younger population are already stretched by the demands of working to support an increasingly dependent population.
Inaction
Researching the ageing population in Argentina uncovered a striking dearth of coverage for a topic that has gained so much attention in more developed nations. Statistics on the subject differed from source to source and few organisations felt they had the specific expertise to talk about the matter. Rofman explained that the scarce resources, organisations and charities concerning the matter were a result of ‘the ageing of the population in Argentina being so slow – there haven’t been any shocks yet’.
Yet, with foreboding forecasts for the future, one questions whether the topic is genuinely not pertinent or whether it is just the mundane veneer of this potentially devastating issue that is distancing interest and activity so much.
Great picts!!!
the facts r behin imagination