Tomorrow, Venezuelans will have to decide whether they want another six years of president Hugo Chávez, or whether they want something different.

Chavez campaigning in Caracas, Venezuela. (Photo courtesy of Chavez Corazon Patria)

The results of the election will be not only of importance for the people of Venezuela; they are immensely important for the likes of Nicaragua, Cuba, and the rest of the countries attached to the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA).

ALBA is a political and economical alliance spurred by president Chávez, which started operating in 2004, when its first summit was held in Havana, Cuba. Its purpose, according to Chávez, is to achieve “Latin American and Caribbean unity” through a series of trade agreements and common institutional architecture.

The alliance currently has eight member nations, five of which are located north of the Darien Gap, which separates South America from Central America. These are Nicaragua, Cuba, Dominica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Antigua and Barbuda.

Over 75 million people live in ALBA countries, and the regional bloc is very rich in natural resources, such as oil, gas, and minerals. Within ALBA, Venezuela, with its vasts oil reserves and political leadership, plays a crucially important role.

Economic Dependency

According to statistics released this week by the Nicaraguan Central Bank, since 2007 the country has benefitted from more than US$2.2bn of trade with Venezuela.

Venezuelan oil lines (Photo: Prensa Presidencial)

Exports to the South American country have risen from US$30m in 2007 to US$302m in 2011, making Venezuela the second largest importer of Nicaraguan products after the United States.

Nicaragua also receives lucrative oil loans from Venezuela, buying half of the oil upfront and then paying back the other half through loans. in 2011, Nicaragua made US$557m from oil financing. According to the Central Bank report, 62% of this oil revenue goes to fund social projects and small-business development.

Cuba also relies heavily on its ALBA ally for many of its economic necessities. In return for a part payment scheme for the 100,000 barrels of oil provided by Venezuela each day, Cuba sends more than 40,000 doctors, physicians, teachers, and other experts to assist in Venezuela’s social programmes.

Meanwhile, smaller ALBA members such as Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines all benefit from favourable trade links with Venezuela. For  example, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, which became part of ALBA in 2009, has reaped the rewards of a subsidised credit scheme for oil imports and cheap machinery, used to build the new Argyle International Airport that has allowed for the development of a tourism trade on the islands.

Chávez’s main rival, Henrique Capriles, has given assurances to Latin American leaders that he will not instigate an immediate change to trade dealings if elected president. “Venezuela will not leave any integration process and therefore [Venezuela] will not leave the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of America or the Mercosur common market,” he said to the French newspaper Libération.

Hugo Chavez's main rival Henrique Capriles Radonski on the campaign trail.

However, he warned Cuba that Venezuela “cannot continue giving away our oil”. And to Nicaragua he said: “not a drop of black gold [oil] will leave this country for free”. Indeed, Nicaragua, Cuba, and the rest of the ALBA countries would to see a fall in revenue if favourable oil trade links with Venezuela were to end.

A 2011 report by the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), an independent economic think-tank, warned of the “high degree of dependency of the economy in relations with Venezuela.”

It also said that a fall in Venezuelan trade would create a “shock” to the Nicaraguan economy and result in a significant fall in the GDP.

In Cuba, the economist and dissident Oscar Chepe said in an interview with the international press this week, that if Hugo Chávez loses it “may have dramatic consequences for Cuba”.

“With a moribund economy that has become parasitic, if [Cuba] loses the cord that feeds it from Venezuela, it would precipitate a disastrous and unsustainable situation”, he added.

Indeed, Cuba has not been a stranger to losing an ally it has fostered an economic dependency on. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Cuban economy was sent spiralling and a large part of its recovery was due to an alliance with Venezuela. Part of the problem for both Nicaragua and Cuba, is that this ‘dependency’ has weakened trade links with other nations.

Carlos Muñiz, the executive director of Funides, advised the Nicaraguan government that they had to “seek new sources of funding.”

Heeding the warning, Nicaragua has begun to diversify its trade links this year. Last month, the government signed a ‘memorandum of understanding’ with a Chinese telecom giant to fund a project to build an inter-oceanic canal across Nicaragua to rival the Panama Canal. The company has also agreed to invest a considerable sum in Nicaraguan telecommunication infrastructure and internet technology. However, in 2011 the trade with China amounted to a mere $17 million.

The Collapse of Socialism of the 21st Century?

As well as serving as an economic figurehead for the ALBA bloc, Venezuela is also a source of ideological direction.

According to Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega, the upcoming Venezuelan election “is a strategic battle for the Bolivarian revolution and Latin American people”.

Meanwhile the Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez, whilst speaking at the United Nations, expressed his country’s solidarity with the Bolivarian and socialist cause of Hugo Chávez’s government.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega with Hugo Chavez and Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa. (Photo: Presidencia de la Republica del Ecuador)

A loss by Chávez in the elections would see the end of the centrepiece and founder of ‘Socialism of the 21st century’. Whilst this would not necessarily mean an ideological collapse across Latin America, it would slow down the cause.

Indeed, Venezuela currently provides a counterweight to US influence within the continent. If Hugo Chávez is not reelected, countries like Nicaragua and Cuba may find themselves having to move closer to the United States for economic assistance and political support.

The Cuban opposition sees that such a scenario would have dramatic consequences for Cuban history. “Rather than a confrontation between political parties, it could mark a turning point in the history of the [Cuban] nation,” said Oscar Chepe.

Furthermore, the US itself will hold presidential elections next month. These could be just as important for the ALBA countries as the Venezuelan election.

Indeed, Republican candidate Mitt Romney has taken an extremely disapproving stance on the ideological leadership of Nicaragua and Cuba.

Speaking before a US-Cuba Democracy Political Action Committee event in Miami this year, Romney stated: “If I’m fortunate to become the next president of the United States, it is my expectation that Fidel Castro will finally be taken off this planet”.

So over this weekend Central American and Caribbean eyes will be fixed to television screens and ears squeezed up to radios, to await news of the result of the Venezuelan election. Current polls are indicating a lead by Hugo Chávez, but nothing can be presumed and everyone must anxiously wait to discover who will be in charge of Venezuela for the next six years.

Erick Martínez Ávila was found dead this Monday in the Honduran village of Guasculile. He was a journalist, a leader of the lesbian, gay, transgender, and bisexual community, and a candidate for the Freedom and Refoundation Party.

The body of the journalist, 32, was found with signs of strangulation in manhole near a highway. His disappearance was reported last weekend.

Ávila was in charge of communication at the Association of Kukulcán, an organisation that defends the rights of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community (LGBT).

The murdered journalist was also the leader of the leftist political organisation called Los Necios and the founder of the Diversity and Resistance Movement.

He represented the department of Francisco Morzán for the current Refoundation Popular Force (RPF), which belongs to the Freedom Refoundation Party.

Following the murder, the National Commissioner for Human Rights, Ramón Custodio, informed that at least 21 journalists have been murdered in Honduras over the last three years.

Previously, the National Commission of Human Rights announced that in 2011, the Honduran homicide rate was recorded at 86 people per 100 thousand.

This committee also pointed out that a violent death occurs every 74 minutes in Central America.

Before Ávila, the most recent journalist murdered was Fausto Elio Hernández in the Honduran department of Colón.

Translated from Púlsar.

Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia and María Angela Holguín, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Colombia at the Sixth Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia (Photo: OAS)

Last week the largest meeting between Latin American heads of state took place in Cartagena, Colombia. In anticipation of this meeting, there was one major topic on everyone’s minds – the apparent failure of the war on drugs. From this meeting, a rather disappointing brush aside ‘concluded’ the conversation.

As a conclusion of The Summit of the Americas, the Organisation of American States (OAS) ordered an investigation into the war on drugs, declaring that “in confronting the vast resources and violent and corrupting effects of drug trafficking, simply combining uncoordinated efforts—even those that have been successful—has only had a limited impact on the world drug problem, and therefore it is necessary to identify effective measures on the basis of an integrated and balanced approach.”

No more, no less, just that it will be looked at. But for the countries most affected by drug problems, this may not be enough. Extremely serious problems call for radical solutions, and Central America is now demanding that the continent hears its plea.

A Serious Debate

In the lead up to, and in anticipation of the Summit, the Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina expected slightly more. In an article he wrote in Britain’s Observer newspaper, the right-wing president, who is in charge of one of the most drug-affected countries in the world, came forward and controversially proposed the regulated legalisation of drugs.

“Isn’t it true that we have been fighting the war on drugs these past two decades?” he asked. “Then, how on earth is drug consumption higher and production greater and why is trafficking so widespread?”

His answer? The war on drugs is not working.

This is not a new concept, far from it. But the difference is that leaders and powerful figures all around the world are beginning to take the debate about finding an alternative method to the ‘war on drugs’ seriously. Particularly vocal are those who are experiencing the drug wars first-hand. And at the moment, Central American countries are doing the experiencing more than most.

“[Central America is] just a small territory that happens to find itself geographically between the largest drug consumption markets and the largest drug producers,” said Pérez Molina summing up their predicament.

As victims of geography, other Central American governments are also arguing against global policy, which remains the same, as their countries are crumbling. Maurico Funes, the president of El Salvador in recent weeks declared he shares Pérez Molina’s position, adding, “it is not just an initiative for Guatemala.” Laura Chinchilla, President of Costa Rica also agreed that Central American leaders “have the right to discuss [legalisation] as we are paying a very high price.”

Central America and the ‘Balloon Effect”

Central American states are feeling an urgency of survival, pushing them to come forward in this debate.

Mexico is the 12th largest economy in the word, yet everyday there are reports of people being killed from the drug violence. The effect is even stronger on much smaller Honduras – which has the largest homicide rate in the world, with prisons that are virtually lawless. Or Guatemala, which aside from now having a murder rate higher than during their civil war, is dealing with the Mexican Zeta and Sinaloa drug gangs, preferring to pay locals in drugs rather than cash, bringing on a whole new dimension of problems. In all, a UN 2011 Global Study found that Central American countries are near “breaking point” with their levels of homicide.

Another UN report from the Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) warned that in 2010 Central American countries had for the first time become major transit countries for drug trafficking. But it has been a long road of squeezing to fit into that place.

US Coast Guard proudly displays a drug bust haul in the war on drugs. (Photo: Coast Guard News)

In 1971, US President Richard Nixon decided put an end to “public enemy number #1” and declared a war on drugs. Since then, the United States, the world’s largest consumer of drugs, has spent over US$1 trillion on fighting this war at the root, instead of focusing on treatment at home. In 2010 alone, the bill was US$51bn, yet according to the UNODC, the number of drug users has risen from 18 millions to some 210 millions in the last 10 years.

In 1989 the problem was Colombia. There, drug gangs were so strong they were running alongside the state as a parallel economy. Along came the United States with ‘Plan Colombia’, and a full on assault ensued. Aerial spraying crops and the army ‘taking on’ the drug gangs ended with lower levels of coca cultivation (the leaf which cocaine is extracted from) and a much less powerful drug-gang network. It also left thousands of locals injured and even dead from the chemicals sprayed in the air, heightened cultivation levels in neighbouring Peru and Bolivia, and countless murdered and displaced by army atrocities.

Closing the trafficking routes through the Caribbean by the United States coastguard just drove traffickers overland and through Central America. It is no coincidence that since Colombia has improved, Mexico’s drug situation has declined. And again, no big coincidence that since Felipe Calderón’s government started to fight back against the drug gangs in 2006, levels of drug related violence have increased in Guatemala and other Central American countries.

Danny Kushlick, from UK-based international NGO Transform Drug Policy Foundation, explains that “any victories against the cartels in one area only serve to squeeze the gangs into new territory.” It is a metamorphosing organ, like trapped air, just looking for the next space to move into, in what is aptly named ‘the balloon effect’.

“Many of the states [in Central America] are not robust enough to withstand the onslaught and their very existence is brought into question. This threat to security, and ultimately to the viability of nation states, has brought the crisis in the region to a crescendo,” says Kushlick.

'No al narcotrafico' leads the Global Marijuana March for the legalization of marijuana that was held in Buenos Aires in May 2011. (Photo: Joe Rondone)

Legalisation or Decriminalisation?

The topic of legalising of drugs is for many an extremely controversial one. But experts argue that different forms should be considered, from legalisation, to regulation, to decriminalisation.

Pérez Molina’s view is that “to suggest liberalisation – allowing consumption, production and trafficking of drugs without any restriction whatsoever – would be, in my opinion, profoundly irresponsible.”

He attests that it is important “to abandon any ideological position (whether prohibition or liberalisation) and to foster a global intergovernmental dialogue based on a realistic approach – drug regulation. Drug consumption, production and trafficking should be subject to global regulations, which means that consumption and production should be legalised but within certain limits and conditions.”

Kushlick, who investigates options of drug legalisation, agrees, stating that “a shift in the global regime from prohibition to one of management of production, supply, and use would bring numerous wide-ranging benefits to Central America.”

He explains that “first, with the reduction in price following legalisation and regulation, the narcos would leave the trade, as there would no longer be the huge untaxed profits to be made. This would have the knock on effect of reducing violence as gangs stop fighting over turf.”

“It would also reduce corruption amongst law enforcement officers and government officials as the need to corrupt reduces, and the money to bribe officials disappears. It would also reduce militarisation in the region.”

Kushlick has his concerns too, especially concerning legalisation without a global shift. He strongly feels that it should be a multilateral, global concern. “There are many countries around the world that do have the infrastructure to regulate drugs perfectly well – in fact many of them already do.  For instance, half of the world’s opium poppies are grown for the legal market.”

Victoria Donda Peréz talks at the open debate held at UBA (Photo: Beatrice Murch)

From a different perspective, Victoria Donda, an Argentine politician from the Libres del Sur party who supports a move to decriminalisation instead of legalisation, agrees something has to be done. “There has been no change in statistics or in actual facts regarding the fight against drug trafficking. In fact, in most Latin American countries [traffic] has increased,” she replies, when asked on the subject.

“We think that the laws at the moment are encouraging the security forces and police to chase the consumer rather than the dealers,” she says. “The addict is a sick person and not a criminal – the law should change [to decriminalisation] and include prevention and policies in education.”

This said, she remains sceptical over whether a regulated legalisation could work, as “legalisation involves other issues like regulation of quantities and substances.” But, as part of a political party which has been looking into this issue for a while, Donda strongly points out that “this is not an option we are considering for Argentina.”

“If we eliminate the persecution against consumers, then the state and police only have to worry about chasing the drug dealers.”

And, in the Other Corner…

Prior to, and at the Summit of the Americas, amongst all the press about legalisation, US President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden clearly outlined their opposition to any form of regional law against prohibition. It could be argued that, as mid-term elections are coming up, it would be simply political suicide to say anything else.

“I think it warrants a discussion,” Biden told reporters before the Summit, but confidently declaring that looking into the issue “you will only realise there are more problems with legalisation than non-legalisation.” Admitting that although drug legalisation could have positive effects – like reducing prison populations – he believes it would also lead to more drug use, health problems, and even more bureaucracies.

Small step as it is, the US is talking about drugs prevention in a way that has not been done before on top of the OAS’s mandate to look into ‘alternative methods’. And as any recovering addict knows too well, the first step is to admit you have a policy problem.

“The OAS is a US-dominated organisation and the policy review could be seen as throwing the issue into the long grass.” Kushlick warns against seeing too much in the US’s words, or the mandate. “It is crucial that we do not rely on it to deliver.” He sees the US agreement to open up a debate is more of a hope to diffuse the argument for legalisation and make it calmly go away, rather than light fire under it.

The US has to remember that large powers are looming south of the border, and its hegemonic influence in the region is waning. Many strong political figures from Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia are stepping forward offering a voice of change – the US may miss the boat to be a part of these talks. Latin American countries can, and if they gain a big enough consensus will, take action themselves.

As Kushlick points out, “the chances are that the initial moves will be taken despite, rather than because, of the US. However, it is difficult to envisage a fundamental global shift without the US coming along.”

The time for a debate is not coming. It is already here.

To know what locals think about the ‘war on drugs’ click here.

At least 34 people were killed at around 11am on Sunday morning in the village of Santa Elena Ajquil in San Cristóbal Verapaz, Alta Verapaz in the north of Guatemala after a landslide buried a group of coffee industry workers on the road that runs from San Cristobal Verapaz to Chicaman. 

The 1.5km wide naturally occurring landslide loosened more than 10,000 tonnes of mud and fragmented rock which tumbled down to the road below,  where coffee labourers were at work.

Rescue efforts by municipal firemen, the Guatemalan Red Cross, the national civil police and the National Coordinator for the Reduction of Disasters (CONRED) continue and the authorities fear that the number of fatalities will rise as there were 140 people in the area at the time of the incident, and 60 missing have yet to be found.

These intensive endeavours are being impeded by further rockfalls and recent poor weather conditions in Alta Verapaz, 200km north of the capital, Guatemala City. Deputy Minister of Public Works Wilfredo Garcia says that rescue workers are “taking every precaution” but it has been impossible to get heavy machinery into the area.

The Guatemalan vice president Rafael Espada says that his government will help victims’ families with funeral costs, but according to national newspaper Prensa Libre some bodies are so badly mutilated it is nearly impossible to identify them.

The same area was hit by a rockfall last month, killing at least two people. In order to prevent future casualties from major landslides, the authorities plan to initiate a series of controlled explosions to alleviate loose rock.