The Paraguayan Supreme Electoral Justice Court (TSJE) will invite the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to observe and evaluate the 21^st April 2013 general elections, announced TSJE spokesmen Luis Alberto Mauro and Carlos María Ljubetic yesterday. The elections will be the first since the controversial power shift that ousted former president Fernando Lugo, instated current president Federico Franco, and prompted the country’s suspension from the UNASUR regional bloc.

Franco had stated previously that because his administration had not been given an opportunity to argue its legitimacy before other UNASUR members, observers could come but “they were not going to invited.” President Franco has invited the Organization of American States (OEA), the European Union (EU) and the Jimmy Cater Centre, all of which already plan to follow the elections.

In response, Mauro declared,  “from the Electoral Justice we have accepted the arrival of all independent international missions with or without the consent of the government.”

Ousted head of state and senatorial hopeful Fernando Lugo added from Quito yesterday during that the upcoming April elections “will not be a coat for white paint over what happened in June.”

Paraguay has been suspended since last 29^th June immediately following the leadership shift deemed by UNASUR and Mercosur as a “democratic breakdown” and heavily criticised by many neighbouring world leaders. “It will not be so easy to take up Paraguay’s relations at the international level after the elections,” warned Lugo.

When Fernando Lugo won the April 2008 elections, becoming the first non Colorado Party President of Paraguay in 61 years, he promised that the country was going to enter a period of renewal and change. At that time, nobody could foresee that after four years, Lugo would be ousted as president on June 22nd, 2012, via a constitutionally legal, but highly controversial, impeachment process.

Vice President Federico Franco and President Fernando Lugo back in 2008. (Photo: Fernando Lugo)

Lugo’s elected vice-president, Federico Franco, was sworn in the same day and has passed 100 days in charge in the midst of an ongoing bitter debate between those who continue to support Lugo and those who were glad to see him leave. Franco’s cabinet, purged of Lugo’s allies, has also changed the approach to key policies in energy and agriculture, deepening the divide in the country. Though this political experience, an unprecedented one in Paraguay, remains fresh, there are already some lessons to be taken from June’s events.

Reflections on Lugo’s Demise

Lugo won the election supported by the APC (Alianza Patriótica Para el Cambio) which was an alliance of several political parties coming from the left and right of the political spectrum. The Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA), led by Franco, was the most prominent among them. This alliance, based on heterogeneous and contradictory interests, began to crack as early as July 2009 with the withdrawal of the PLRA. The party accused Lugo and his left wing allies of reaching a deal with the opposition Colorado Party about the presidency of the National Parliament, disrespecting Franco, and marginalising the PLRA in government. The experience of the APC shows once again that an alliance established by heterogeneous sectors to win elections cannot guarantee successful governance when it reaches power.

The withdrawal of the PLRA from the APC did not mean its departure from government. Franco remained as vice president and tensions between him and Lugo continued to escalate. In this sense, far from changing things Lugo also continued a tradition of poor relations between president and vice in Paraguay’s immature democracy. Previously, this had happened during the presidencies of Juan Carlos Wasmosy (1993 – 1998), Raúl Cubas (1998 – 1999) and Nicanor Duarte Frutos (2003 – 2008).

Once again, far from changing things, Lugo failed to break the bi-partisan dominance of Paraguayan politics. Even though the APC grouped together several political parties, the PLRA and the Colorado Party have remained the country’s leading political forces. Lugo’s victory in the 2008 elections was possible due to about 500,000 voters belonging to the PLRA, and also due to hundreds of thousands of Colorados who voted him as they were frustrated with the traditional way of policymaking and their party’s increasing internal fights.

Lugo’s inability to implement the changes he promised meant he fell victim to the expectations he himself had raised. During the political campaign he promised to bring change to Paraguayan politics and to work for transparency and for the solution of the country’s very serious social problems. Once in power, Lugo was not able to meet the mobilised population’s demands for political renewal. On the contrary, owing to some actions, for many people Luguismo soon became a synonym for nepotism, corruption and more of the same bad practices. To make things worse, three additional events contributed to undermine the president’s initial popularity: the increasing violence in the rural areas, more radical activity by the EPP terrorist organisation, and question marks over his personal character after his admission that he fathered two children while he was a bishop.

Far from solving the country’s social contradictions, Lugo’s critics say he exacerbated them by supporting landless peasants that occupied private land, harassing landowners of Brazilian origins and their descendants (the so-called ‘Brasiguayos‘), and being permissive with the EPP’s actions. Some political sources claim that Lugo ousted Interior Minister Rafael Filizzola as he was seriously interested in dismantling the terrorist group. He replaced Mr. Filizzola with another Filizzola, Carlos (Rafael’s cousin), who proved to be ineffective in stopping the spiral of violence in rural Paraguay and bringing the EPP under control.

A family of famers in rural Paraguay (Photo: sub coop)

Lugo also gave birth to a crucial paradox: however hard he tried to deepen the gap between the Colorados and Liberales, he ended, involuntarily, bringing them together in a united front against him. It happened soon after the Campos de Morumbí massacre on 15th June, when 17 people were killed. Lugo was forced to remove Carlos Filizzola from the Interior Ministry and replace him with Rubén Candia Amarilla, a former Colorado prosecutor. The appointment of Candia Amarilla stoked political tensions, with the Liberales thinking it was a maneouvre of Lugo to establish an alliance with the Colorados for the 2013 elections.

Meanwhile, some Colorados thought it was an attempt to divide their party. Candia Amarilla belonged to the sector led by party leader Lilian Samaniego, who was being challenged at the time by Horacio Cartes, the leader of the most important movement within the Colorado Party and one of the pre candidates to Paraguayan presidency for the next year’s elections. Shortly after the appointment of the new interior minister, both parties reach a consensus to hurry through the impeachment of the President.

The political events of Paraguay have also brought to surface an increasing debate about the real democratic vocation of MERCOSUR. Almost at the same time as the regional block suspended Paraguay, accusing the new government of a ‘parliamentary coup’. The remaining MERCOSUR members – Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay – proceeded to approve the admission of Venezuela, something had been impossible due to the strong opposition of the Colorado dominated Paraguayan parliament. Some sectors in Paraguay continue to say that the motives behind the country’s temporary suspension had more to do with this opportunity to admit oil-rich Venezuela into MERCOSUR than the impeachment of Lugo.

Franco’s Rule

On the other hand, the new government in Paraguay, far from helping to calm the waters, is becoming increasingly controversial, specially with some issues that are subject to deep public debate. These include more radical violence by the EPP; more accusations of nepotism; and the kind of personal crusade the President is performing in order to allow Rio Tinto Alcan (RTA) to settle a big plant in Paraguay. This company has had a wide range of accusations, from being highly environmentally hazardous to having supported dictatorships and genocide actions in some places where it has established in previous decades. In this context, rumors that RTA financed the impeachment are common in Paraguay nowadays.

Rumours of vested interests behind (and in favour of) Lugo’s impeachment have also arisen from Franco’s very controversial decision to approve the use of GM seeds. Lugo had been resisting pressure from major agricultural companies such as Monsanto to introduce the new seeds. The new seeds are specifically for cotton and corn, two crops that are key to Paraguayan agriculture: the former has traditionally been produced in small plots, while the latter is one of the most important sources of nutrition for the popular classes. While the Government claims that the measure will contribute to the modernisation of Paraguayan agriculture, many peasant organisations reject it stating that, apart from being beneficial only to some major agricultural companies, it is very harmful for the environment and the population´s health condition.

Many Questions, Few Answers

Though some lessons have been learned from Lugo’s impeachment, the uncertain future in Paraguay politics invites many more questions.

It is very likely that Lugo will be elected senator in next year’s elections. What role is he going to play in Paraguayan politics? Will Paraguayan society overcome the current division among those who favored the impeachment and those who still support Lugo? How will the PLRA and the Colorado Party contribute to political stability after next year’s elections? (The answer to this question is key, especially taking into account that while the PLRA reached the Presidency through the impeachment after 76 years out of power, the Colorado Party will try to recover the presidency in the next year’s elections after the 2008 defeat).

And finally: do the main political actors have a real vocation for change? Or, as has been so common in the recent Paraguayan political history, are things going to change so that nothing really changes?

Last Thursday, Paraguayan president Federico Franco signed a decree that limited the rigor of environmental studies and shifted regulatory responsibilities. The decree renders environmental studies no longer requisite for the authorisation of genetically modified (GM) agricultural products.

Technical bodies such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG) will now hold greatest power over decisions concerning genetically modified products. The National Commission on Biosecurity (COMBIO) formerly held such power.

The decree follows the release of GM cotton earlier this year and GM corn earlier this week, both of which were met with popular outcry. The new policy will likely facilitate access to Paraguay’s fields for multinational agricultural companies. Many Paraguayans feel these crops endanger Paraguay’s agricultural self-sufficiency, environmental resources, and human health. President Franco has previously cited growth in agricultural yield as chief reasons for promoting the use of GM crops.

Story courtesy of Agencia Púlsar (link to http://www.agenciapulsar.org/), the AMARC-ALC news agency.

Paraguayan president Federico Franco explained Paraguay’s recent leadership shift and aired foreign affairs concerns to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon Sunday afternoon. Franco is currently attending the 67^th United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

“The Secretary General was well aware of events in Paraguay. He asked about the killings at Curuguaty which triggered the impeachment, and we gave him an extensive report on the Senate debate and the political consequences,” recounted Franco.

“I was impressed by how well-informed Ban Ki-Moon was about the situation in Paraguay. The information he used was correct,” reflected Minister of External Relations José Félix Fernández in a conversation with 780 AM.

Franco also voiced dissatisfaction with Paraguay’s suspension from Mercosur last June and the acceptance of Venezuela last August, made possible by Paraguay’s absence. “Paraguay is not going to accept the interference of Venezuela, and this is also of concern for the other neighbouring countries,” said Franco.

Paraguay’s suspension came as a reaction to the ousting of former president Fernando Lugo and current President Franco’s ascension last June. The suspension has meant sanctions from member nations until Paraguay’s next scheduled election in April of 2013.

For his part, Secretary Ban asked President Franco to continue to contribute Paraguayan troops to UN peace missions in countries such as Haiti, Syria, and Cyprus and praised the Franco government for their promotion of women’s rights.

Secretary Ban has not made an official statement regarding the meeting.

Franco arrived in the United States with his wife yesterday. The trip is his first representing Paraguay to the United Nations, as well as his first abroad as head of state.

Franco will attend a dinner hosted by US president Barack Obama this evening and is also scheduled to meet with president of the Inter American Development Bank, Luis Alberto Moreno, economist Jeffrey Sachs, and Duncan Neiderauer of the New York Stock Exchange.

“Seed Week,” a demonstration in Asunción held by farming, social, and indigenous rights groups began today in protest of the likely commercial release of five varieties of genetically modified (GM) corn seeds. The protesters advocate the alternative use of native varieties and agricultural diversity as essential to the nation’s food security and sovereignty.

Protests reportedly began with about 70 people marching through Asunción’s downtown area before being stopped by police. There have been no reports of violence or arrests so far.

President Federico Franco’s government is widely expected to finalise the authorisation of GM seeds this week. “It is my understanding that, with much certainty, [they will approve the release of these five corn varieties] next week,” said Santiago Bertoni, an agricultural engineer from National Commission on Biosecurity (Combio), told Reuters. Nevertheless, details of exactly when Combio and the Health Ministry will finalise the approval process have to yet to be announced.

The varieties in question include: VT Triple Pro, NK 603, MON810, BT11, and TC1507, three of which belong to the transnational agricultural company, Monsanto. A demonstration that will directly target the US-based agriculture giant is expected to be one of the most notable activities of “Seed Week.” Monsanto is the subject of protests based in over 60 different cities worldwide taking place this week citing concern for the environment and human health.

According to Combio, the authorisation of genetically modified corn will increase Paraguay’s agricultural yield from the 876,000 hectares of crops sowed during the 2012 agricultural cycle to one million. In the beginning of August, National Health Department head Antonio Arbor approved the use of one type of genetically modified corn in question.

Paraguay already allows genetically modified soy and cotton production. The production of genetically modified cotton was approved earlier this year and still attracts much controversy.

Story courtesy of Agencia Púlsar (link to http://www.agenciapulsar.org/), the AMARC-ALC news agency.

Teachers unions are set to start an indefinite strike next week after the government failed to respond demands to wage demands. The date of the strike will be set on 12th September, with a national protest scheduled for the following day.

The principal demand concerns the salaries of 16,000 teachers, which unions say are currently below the country’s minimum wage floor. The unions also claim that teachers are not receiving the benefits they are entitled to for job experience and academic merit.

“Unfortunately, we have no alternative but to take to the streets to demand that these basic requirements are met,” said Eladio Benítez, secretary general of the National Teachers’ Union. Benítez also accused the government of dismissing personnel for political reasons.

Earlier this week, social organisations spoke out against government plans to spend around US$600million on new military equipment, with some of the money potentially being diverted from the education budget.

Employees at the Finance Ministry are also threatening to go on strike next week over salary demands, which the government of Federico Franco says cannot be paid due to a lack of funds. The workers had planned a strike for the 28th August, but later agreed to postpone it for ten days after the government threatened to fire those that took part in the industrial action.

Meanwhile, opposition among rural and indigenous groups continues over the government’s recent decision to permit the use of genetically modified seeds for corn and cotton crops.

The Paraguayan government has announced its intention to appeal Mercosur sanctions before the International Court of Justice in the Hague. Meanwhile, opposition group Paraguay Resists announces plans for a Social Forum next week.

The Paraguayan government, headed by President Federico Franco, rejects its suspension from Mercosur and the sanctions imposed on the country by other Mercosur nations. Parguay was suspended from Mercosur on 29th June, when the other three member states at the time – Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay – determined that the ousting of former President Lugo on 22nd June constituted a violation of the group’s democratic clause. The suspension was intended to hold until the country’s next elections, scheduled for 21st April 2013.

The nation hopes to challenge its suspension on the grounds that the move violates national treaties and subjects Paraguay to international isolation. Paraguay holds that the suspension was a violation of the Treaty of Ouro Preto, which established that “no country can be sanctioned when one of the four signatory states is absent.”

According to MercoPress, Paraguayan Minister of Foreign Affairs José Félix Fernández Estigarribia stressed that at present “there are no negotiations” between Paraguay and the other Mercosur member states with regards to the possible lifting of the country’s suspension.

The Paraguayan government also refuses to accept the entrance of Venezuela into the regional bloc, a move that was formalised last week. Venezuela’s admission was made possible through Paraguay’s suspension, as Paraguay was the only member state that had not ratified the addition of the bloc’s new member.

Minster of Foreign Affairs Fernández Estigarribia revealed that the government is presently waiting for a report from a Spanish jurist that will allegedly strengthen the government’s case. The official also stated that the government already has two judicial opinions on the case, but that the reports are contradictory.

The case could face significant challenges, however, in that neither Argentina nor Brazil may accept the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve this case. Paraguay already tried to challenge its suspension before the Permanent Revision Tribunal (TPR) of Mercosur, but the body rejected the petition.

Meanwhile, the Paraguayan opposition announced the creation of a Social Forum organised by the group Paraguay Resists. The motto of the forum, which will take place 14th and 15th August in Asunción, is “Sovereignty, Democracy and Participation”. Attendees will debate the public policy of the current administration, while also coordinating pacific resistance.

Fernando Lugo in the Government Palace watches images of his supporters on television on June 22. (Photo: Fernando Lugo Méndez)

In 2008, a bishop from the combative region of San Pedro, where important peasant struggles had been carried out, became president of Paraguay with the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC). Aided by a strong division within the Partido Colorado -which had been in power for an uninterrupted period of 61 years, 35 of which were under Stroessner’s dictatorship- Fernando Lugo managed to win the elections and open up a new chapter in the country’s history.

But as soon as he made the decision to get involved in politics, encouraged by the support of citizens and social movements alike, especially the peasants, the ‘bishop of the poor’ encountered a dilemma: whether to run with his small party Tekojojá (‘Equality’, in indigenous guaraní language) and lose, or whether to try and win by making an alliance with the Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA), a traditional political force clandestinely founded by Domingo Laíno in 1978 as opposition to Stroessner’s dictatorship, which re-grouped some sectors from the old Liberal Party that had governed Paraguay between 1904-1936.

The ghost of what had happened in Mexico in 2006, when Andrés Manuel López Obrador denounced being victim of election fraud, seemed familiar enough in Paraguay. So Lugo decided to side with the liberals -capable of providing votes, as well as making sure they were counted. He chose to seize the opportunity, maybe the only one he would have, of a Partido Colorado deeply divided between Blanca Ovelar, Nicanor Duarte Frutos’ candidate, and Luis Alberto Castiglioni, considered ‘the (US) embassy’s candidate’. The pro-Stroessner tripod made up of the government, armed forces, and the Partido Colorado had already started to crumble after the fall of the dictator.

Federico Franco greets Fernando Lugo (courtesy of Fernando Lugo Mendez)

And so, Lugo won. But at the cost of having a liberal vice-president -Federico Franco, who would later distance himself from the president in the midst of a division within the PLRA- and an almost non-existent parliamentary representation. Despite the fact that there had been important protests since Stroessner’s fall in 1989 (such as the one in 2006, against Duarte Frutos’ re-election attempts), Paraguay was far from being like Ecuador, where president Rafael Correa had enough social support to close down Congress and call for a Constitutional Assembly, or Bolivia, where Evo Morales has a massive indigenous-popular support base with important mobilisation capabilities.

Lugo also inherited a country impregnated by the colorados‘ political culture, where the fight for the state apparatus is ruthless, as made evident by the murder of former vice-president Luis María Argaña in 1999 -shortly before the resignation of president Raúl Cubas, who was at the verge of being impeached. An important character at the time was the right-wing, populist military officer Lino Oviedo, who was once protected by former Argentine president Carlos Menem, and who nowadays leads the Ethical Citizens National Union (also known as Ethical Colorados Union), which took part in the parliamentary coup.

Lugo’s presidency was based, at least at the beginning, in the politics of the ‘poncho juru‘ (in the centre, like the opening in a poncho). But even though he did not make consistent reforms, his government was -despite its contradictions- an interlocutor for the peasants and, for the first time, left-wing politicians were awarded some of the ministries. This caused enough concern within the landowners to have the spokesman for the ‘brasiguayos‘ -Brazilian-born land owners and their descendants- Aurio Fighetto, declare shortly after the coup that “the ‘carperos‘ (landless peasants who were occupying farms) were in the [government] Palace.” Such was the argument he was willing to use to ask Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff to recognise the new government. His colleague and president of the Association of Christian Businessmen, Luis Fretes, said with brutal honesty: “I believe Franco is going to be much firmer in terms of respecting private property.”

The issue of land is key to understanding anything that happens in Paraguay (80% of fertile land is owned by 2% of landowners). So is a variety of illegal activities -drug trafficking, smuggling, kidnappings- linked to the state, which has been permeated by a host of different criminal organisations.

Paraguayan farmers and signs of violence. (courtesy of Sub.coop)

There is no longer a massive exploitation of tannin (red quebracho) which enslaved thousands of peasants, and the centre of Paraguay’s economic activity is not timber or yerba mate production anymore. But although these products have been partially replaced, the logic of an enclave economy has remained, in an equally perverse way, with the new star crop: soy.

Today, Paraguay is the world’s fourth largest soy exporter. The area used up by soy plantations went from one to three million hectares between 1997 and 2012. And the borders between legality and criminality are diffused. Which is why, in the north of the country, the term ‘narco-stockbreeders’ has been coined.

In the midst of its extreme weakness, Lugo had to face an untimely guerrilla movement, the Paraguayan People’s Army (EPP), apparently organised by ex-militants from the Free Country group (some of its members have been accused of being involved in the kidnapping and murdering of president Rául Cubas Grau’s daughter, Cecilia, in 2004) and whose links and aims are not very clear. With only a handful of members, the EPP carried out actions such as destroying machinery in a soy farm accused of polluting a whole town -Concepción-, attacking a military barracks in San Pedro (the region where Lugo used to be a bishop), setting off a bomb in the national court and -the most important one- the kidnapping of landowners Luis Alberto Lindstron and Fidel Zavala in 2009. The latter was forced to distribute beef amongst the poor, ‘courtesy of the EPP’, and pay ransom before being released from the 3-month captivity. Leader Carmen Villalba, from prison, claimed responsibility for all these actions. Meanwhile, some members of the opposition accused Lugo of being an accomplice to the EPP -and even of being a member of it!

As all this was happening, it started to surface that the president had various illegitimate children (despite the fact that, as a bishop, he was supposed to be celibate) and he was victim of a cancer that threatened his life.

Fernando Lugo in a recent press conference after his impeachment. (Photography by Fernando Lugo Mendez)

Within that context, Lugo’s political survival seemed like a miracle: as well as Congress, he had the justice system, a stronghold of the old, corrupt politics, against him; the fraudulent bourgeoisie, which, despite continuing with business as usual, mistrusted the president’s left-wing entourage; the mass media, who shamelessly conspired in favour of the impeachment as they waved around the ‘Hugo Chávez ghost’; and his own vice-president. In this situation, only the divisions within the right and the popular mobilisation (or rather, the threat of it) managed to keep the former bishop in power.

The problems were not only a product of the conservative parties’ conspiracy, but also of the lack of internal cohesion within the government. In cabinet, there were “from obedient disciples of neoliberalism in finance, to apprentices of repressors in Interior, to great ignorants in agriculture, or conservative ex-activists in the social ministries. (Thus) what happened was bound to happen: uncertainty first, and disappointment later,” writes the recently deceased sociologist Tomás Palau on his book ‘Lugo’s Government: Legacy, Administration, and Challenges’. Despite all this, he highlights the creation of the Executive Coordination for Agrarian Reform and the writing of a report from the Truth and Justice Commission and the National Institute of Rural Development and Land about illegally-acquired land, some 8-million hectares of it, as well as the beginning of a reform aiming to guarantee free and universal healthcare.

The key was perhaps what former minister Hugo Richer highlighted some time ago: “Lugo’s government can’t be called left-wing, but thanks to him the left managed to grow and to gain an amount of political influence that it had never had throughout Paraguayan history.” This may not seem much in countries like Bolivia, Venezuela, or Ecuador, but it is enough to upset the elites in a country “watched over” by the huge statue of Chinese anti-communist leader Chiang Kai-Shek. And it is impossible to understand the recent conflicts without the ‘anti-communist’ key, very much a part of the Paraguayan political culture thanks to the strong predominance of the colorados, crucial in holding up Stroessner in power for 35 years.

Fernando Lugo Méndez meeting with political representatives from 'Frente Guasu' and the 'PLRA' (Photo courtesy of Fernando Lugo Méndez)

In the last few years, various groups started up the Frente Guasú (‘large’ in guaraní), which brought together centre-left and left-wing political parties, from social democrats to marxists, as a -sometimes critical- support base for the government.

But -as was already evident in 2009- the impeachment was around the corner, waiting for the right opportunity. In the last few days, it was revealed that the US embassy in Asunción had warned back in 2009 about a plan to remove Lugo as soon as he “made a mistake”, and that the conspiracy was led by Lino Oviedo and Duarte Frutos to put Franco in charge (cable from 28th March 2009, leaked by Wikileaks). Despite the affinity of the US with the new president, the parliamentary coup seems to be more related to internal causes -and the brutal power disputes- than to the traditional ‘CIA coup’.

The ‘mistake’ was the recent massacre of peasants and policemen due to a land-owning conflict in Curuguaty and the later appointment of former colorado prosecutor Rubén Candia Amarilla as Interior Minister. This appointment did not go down well with the left and deepened the liberal divide, whilst activating the internal struggles within the Partido Colorado, which rejected it.

Lugo accused Horacio Cartes, an important colorado leader, of being behind the coup. Cartes is a stockbreeder who entered politics not too long ago, but already has a high chance of becoming president of Paraguay in 2013. Apparently, Cartes thought his candidacy would be threatened by an alleged agreement between Lugo and his party’s president, Lilian Samaniego, who was once Cartes’ ally and is now an internal rival. According to Cartes’ supporters, Lugo would have plotted to enter into an alliance with Samaniego to lend her his support from government, ahead of next year’s presidential elections. This led them to support the former president’s removal.

As the correspondent for La Nación newspaper from Buenos Aires wrote, the three pillars holding Franco are the church (which immediately blessed the new president), Congress, and the business community, especially that related to the agricultural industry. He ‘forgot’, however, to mention the media. ABC Color, owned by the Zucolillo family, was an active part of the anti-Lugo conspiracy and there was not a single day since 2008 in which they did not warn about the ‘Chavista threat’. Now, the newspapers are publishing ‘nationalist’ columns which see the reactions of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay as a new Triple Alliance, like the one that massacred Paraguayans in the 19th century. And they claim that the “Paraguayan race” shall overcome.

With Franco, the liberals reached power for the first time in 76 years, and can now use the state resources until the 2013 elections to campaign and improve their chances. There is no doubt that, as political scientist Marcello Lachi points out, “politics here are not refined.” And controlling the state (and its resources, such as employment) is key to winning elections. This explains the urgency with which they acted, only a few months before an election in which Lugo could not be re-elected. Historical PLRA leader Domingo Laíno, however, has strongly condemned the coup and supports Lugo.

The colorados, meanwhile, are excited at the prospect of returning to power, like the PRI in Mexico, counting on the discredit the liberals will suffer now that they are governing on their own. They have so far managed to break up the APC, and the polls look promising for next year’s election. “If the left and the liberals go their separate ways in the election, the colorados will win with at least 35% of the vote,” says Lachi. There is no second round in Paraguay.

Lugo -whose first reaction was to leave office after being impeached and who did not call for social mobilisation- has regained the initiative and announced that he will go around the country garnering support, denounced the government as “fake”, and received important shows of support from around the region. However, it is unclear whether he is really looking to lead the resistance to an already settled government, or to begin his campaign to become a senator in 2013.

Translated by: Celina Andreassi.

Vice-President of Paraguay, Federico Franco, has declared in an interview that he opposes the inclusion of Venezuela in Mercosur. Speaking to ABC, the country’s leading daily newspaper, he accused Chavez of maintaining an “imperial attitude” towards Paraguay.

Paraguay is the last of the four full Mercosur nations to approve Venezuela’s membership. The others, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay have already ratified the entry into the trading block. According to Franco : “it seems ironic but the good health of Mercosur depends on the Paraguayan Senate. The tiniest and smallest country of Mercosur has the responsibility of saving Mercosur, or eventually signing its death certificate” .

Paraguayan President Lugo, with whom the vice-president has a tense relationship, is an open supporter of the Chavez administration and supports Venezuela’s membership. However, he was warned last August that the opposition-dominated Senate would not provide enough votes to see the initiative through.

Foreign Affairs Minister Hector Lacognata has stressed the importance of “evaluation all the advantages and disadvantages” of Venezuelan membership. He believes that the current format penalises the smaller countries and has referred on various occasions to Mercosur as “four countries with a strong hegemony on the part of one of them: Brazil”.