In the early hours of Monday morning it was announced that Nicolás Maduro had been democratically elected as the next leader of Venezuela, narrowly winning by 50.66% of the vote ahead of opposition rival Henrique Capriles, who obtained 49.07%. Maduro will serve his presidency until 2019 to complete the six-year term that Hugo Chávez was due to begin in January.
Nicolás Maduro during his presidential campaign. (Photo courtesy of Nicolás Maduro Facebook)
An impressive 78% of Venezuela’s population turned out on Sunday to choose their new president, but with data showing that Capriles was defeated by only 273,000 votes, the election results only confirm the sharp political polarisation that exists in Venezuelan society. And Sunday’s dramatic turn of events has exasperated the situation further, prompting Capriles to engage in yet another political battle. His narrow defeat on the back of gaining the support of 1.2 million people since October has given his party the ammunition they needed to accuse the government of fraud.
Maduro’s introduction to presidency was never expected to be quiet, but the unforeseen growing strength of the opposition could prove to be a major spanner in the works. Just after the election results were announced, Maduro called for those who did not vote for him to “work together” for the sake of the country.
Chávez’s Legacy
The new president has made his ideology and political plans clear; he will unwaveringly follow in the footsteps of late president Chávez. A figure that, however loved or hated, has forever changed the face of Venezuelan politics. Throughout his 14-year rule, Chavez and his radically left wing political leadership divided the opinions of political leaders and the media around the world. The Western media in particular have not held back with their views on the former president, which have ranged from political critiques to downright hatred. In what could be described as a witch hunt, tabloids around the world have unabashedly attacked every move the socialist president made.
However, despite media opinions about his policies, ‘bullying’ approach, and showman character, there are some indisputable facts. According to the United Nations, under Chávez’s presidency, poverty in Venezuela was cut to 29.5% in 2011, from 49.4% in 1998; education enrolment doubled as many gained access to free tuition; and millions have gained access to free healthcare. Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the US-based Centre for Economic and Policy Research, indicates in a recent article that access to public pensions has also tripled and unemployment is half of what it was when Chávez first came to power.
“Real GDP per capita, which is mostly driven by productivity growth, expanded by 24% since 2004. In the 20 years prior to Chávez, real GDP per person actually fell. The economic situation vastly improved. Poverty and extreme poverty have been reduced dramatically. Today Venezuela has the lowest rate of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean.”
According to much of the world’s press, however, Chávez was a “dictator”; an all-seeing all-hearing bully of the Venezuelan state. Even if this were true, it still would not account for the amount of media attention Chávez received over the years, given that real dictatorships such as those of Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, or Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine, just to name two examples, receive only a fraction of public scrutiny. But of course, there is less to argue for; these Eastern European countries are not sitting on one of the world’s largest oil reserves.
As part of his Bolivarian Revolution strategy, Chávez antagonised countries and oil giants around the world by keeping a monopoly over Venezuela’s crude oil reserves, limiting exports, oil production, and foreign direct investment. And Maduro, who sees himself not just as Chávez’s political heir, but as his “son”, is promising to honour the former president’s state-led model which tapped oil revenues to distribute wealth among the poor.
Needless to say that the stakes are high for Maduro, who will have to withstand pressure from oil companies and market investors clambering for a slice of the country’s multi-billion dollar oil business. And as the world waits with bated breath to see if the Venezuelan leader is strong enough to lead the Chavista socialist revolution and align a fragmented political coalition, much of the world’s media have already written him off, citing lack of “charisma” and leadership qualities.
Chavismo without Chávez
Venezuela elections (Photo: Luis Carlos Diaz)
“Maduro must mature to show intellectual leadership as a politician, and I sincerely do not know if he possesses it, beyond having been in a National Union as a deputy leader, foreign affairs minister, and vice president,” says professor Santiago Leiras Ledesma, PhD in Latin American Contemporary Studies.
“The triumph of Maduro will mean a ratification of the major guidelines of the Bolivarian Revolution, both domestically as well as internationally, although it is difficult to think of Maduro as a figure who will have the political projection that Hugo Chávez had. Anyway this ‘Chavismo without Chávez’ should face different challenges resulting from excessive reliance on oil exports, and chronic problems in Venezuela such as shortages [of consumer goods] and urban insecurity, as well as dealing with the complex internal political heirs of Chávez.”
Indeed, Maduro will soon be pressed to address the tense disparity in the coalition of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), a feat that will surely put his strength of character to the test.
“The leadership of the ruling party remains in question; I think that Maduro will have to face two major challenges in the political arena: the challenge of the opponents outside the ranks of the Chavismo, and the challenge of the opposition within the ranks of the Chavismo,” adds Leiras.
Another issue of great urgency is the country’s growing shortages of consumer products – the volume of goods out of stock in supermarkets rose to 20.4% in January, contributing to the 20% annual inflation rate.
Undoubtedly Maduro is going to have his work cut out, and his introduction to presidential life will not be an easy ride. Speaking during last week’s presidential campaign, Maduro admitted that he will be faced with many challenges, “as Chávez himself acknowledged”. He added that his primary objectives will include intensifying efforts to curb crime, confronting the country’s corruption issues, and increasing the minimum wage by 30-40%.
“Latin America today is experiencing a profound political and social renaissance – a second independence – after decades of surrendering its sovereignty and freedom to global powers and transnational interests,” Maduro said. “We’ve lost our extraordinary leader, but his project – built collectively by workers, farmers, women, indigenous peoples, Afro-descendants, and the young – is more alive than ever.”
Only time will tell if Maduro has the political leadership skills to act on Venezuela’s social and economic troubles and win the hearts of his public. But for now, his political ideology, at least, is clear: the Bolivarian socialism that Chávez fought so hard for is set to stay. And for 50.66% of the country’s population, this is very welcome news.
What do Argentines think about the election results in Venezuela? Click here to find out.
Editor’s note: this article originally stated Capriles had lost by 500,000 votes and that a full recount of the votes would be carried out (as originally reported) and has been corrected.
