
President Correa expresses joy over his victory (Photo: Miguel Angel Romero/Ecuadorian Government)
Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa was re-elected yesterday for a third and final term with 56.7% of the vote. Correa’s nearest rival, Guillermo Lasso, captured just 23.3% of the vote.
Correa was first elected president in 2006, for a 2007-2011 term. In 2008, the constitution was reformed and presidential elections were held early, and in 2009, Correa took office for a first term under the new constitution.
While Correa’s support has increased from election to election, his Alianza País has been unable to secure a majority in the National Assembly (the Ecuadorian parliament). The wide ranging reforms the president set out to achieve were somewhat held back by the parliamentary opposition, an obstacle Correa hopes will be removed as all 137 seats in the National Assembly were also up for renewal in yesterday’s election (results were not yet in at the time of writing).
Citizen’s Revolution
Rafael Correa first came to power in the midst of a massive institutional crisis, with only one president since 1996 managing to complete his term (Gustavo Noboa, who had risen to power as a result of a coup d’êtat against his predecessor).
Correa, originally an academic, became publicly known when he was economy minister for less than four months under his predecessor, Alfredo Palacio. He did not have his own party and was first elected with the support of actors emerging from the crisis of the traditional party system, including social movements and indigenous organisations, who rallied behind Correa’s call for a ‘Citizen’s Revolution’.

Fans Celebrate Correa’s Win ((Photo: fotospresidencia5 on Flickr)
This support, however, would not last the test of time and many social groups have since moved away to form a left-wing opposition, criticising the government for a lack of collaboration and discussion when implementing policy reforms. Despite this situation, the Citizen’s Revolution managed to consolidate a new path away from “the long night of neoliberalism”, as Correa often refers to the historic period that started in the 1980s.
Economic Reforms
Correa’s comprehensive victory margin could be considered a sum of the impressive economic numbers achieved under his rule. Growth averaged over 4% between 2007 and 2011, despite the double-blow of falling oil prices and remittance inflows that followed the global financial crisis in late-2008. The economic expansion, combined with growth in welfare programmes, brought unemployment down to a historic low of 4.8% in 2012. Poverty levels, meanwhile, declined from 37.6% just before Correa took charge to 27.3% at end-2012, according to official data.
Many commentators in mainstream and business media attribute the improved economic parameters – and by extension Correa’s popularity – to “populist oil spending”, enabled by favourable international prices for Ecuador’s key commodity and now threatened by the stagnation of the same. While it is certain that revenues from the oil sector, which accounts for more than half of the country’s exports, have been crucial in supporting a larger welfare state, the government did not flinch when oil prices crashed mid way through 2008, and continued to boost spending to bring the economy quickly out of the subsequent recession in 2009. As oil prices recovered, Correa renegotiated contracts with foreign oil companies, giving the state control of the resource itself and retaining 85-90% of income generated by those hired to extract it.

President Correa speaking with business owners (Photo: fotospresidencia5 on Flickr)
Other factors were also significant in propping up the government’s economic programme. In 2008, a national commission set up to analyse Ecuador’s foreign debt determined that over US$3bn, around 30% of total obligations, could be considered “illegitimate”, accrued by corrupt and unelected – in the case of military-run – former governments. By reducing total debt and the annual interest payments on it, Correa freed space to hike spending on education, health, and social welfare from 4.8% of GDP in 2006 to 9.3% in 2011. A comprehensive reform of the financial system, forcing banks to retain a significant amount of their reserves within the country, and encouraging them to provide loans for infrastructure and social housing projects, also complemented the fiscal stimulus.
Despite being criticised abroad and in the business community for unorthodox economic policies – some have labelled him ‘Ecuador’s Chávez’ – the move away from neo-liberalism in Correa’s first term did not involve a radical shake up of the country’s productive structure. While the 48-year-old economist has promised to bring ’21st Century Socialism’, a term coined by Chávez, to Ecuador, reforms so far have been limited to strengthening the role of the state within a capitalist framework.
Correa himself acknowledged in his campaign that recent advances have been largely about “doing the same as always: well”, and economic diversification away from the oil sector remains a key challenge going forward. This would leave the state budget less vulnerable to a downturn in the global oil market, especially given Ecuador’s difficulty in raising finance since its 2008 debt restructuring (so far it has largely relied on loans from China to cover budget deficits).
The government has pushed the development of mining as an alternative to the hydrocarbons industry, though growth in this sector has been impeded by protests from environmental groups and indigenous communities. The plan has also drawn some criticism from within Correa’s Alianza País party, which has made the environment a key aspect of economic development, while human rights groups have condemned the apparently “politically motivated” criminal charges brought against anti-mining protesters.
Correa and the Media
Another major battle for Correa so far has been his confrontation against mainstream media, part of the broader conflict between his government and the Ecuadorian elite.
Correa’s accusations against the press have gone further than verbal denunciation. Last year, the president won a libel suit against local newspaper El Universo, after one of its columnists, referring to him as “the dictator”, accused him of ordering to open fire against a hospital during an attempted coup against him in September 2010. Whilst Correa later pardoned the newspaper and the journalist, who would have had to otherwise pay US$40m in damages, the incident marked a point of no return in his relationship with the press.

President Correa speaks with Russia Today (Photo: fotospresidencia5 on Flickr)
One of the obstacles that Correa has had to face due to his parliamentary weakness has been the inability to pass a new communications law, which has been stalled in congress since 2009. In a similar way to the Argentine media law, Ecuador’s communication law promises to democratise access to the airwaves, by splitting the spectrum in thirds for private, community, and state-owned media, as well as break up the highly concentrated market of private media.
Correa’s vision of the social role of media was made explicit during a conference at the University of La Plata in Argentina in December 2012, when he said, “let’s understand that providing a right such as information gives power. Its good or bad quality massively affects society (…) From this central problem arises the need to democratise the ownership of the media and to make it independent from the control of the powers that be and, especially, from the control of the capital. It is also necessary to have media outside of the logic of the market, that means non-profit media and public media. It is necessary to have social control, that is, the right to receive information that is true, verified, timely, in context, plural, without previous censorship and with subsequent responsibility.”
The newly re-elected president has made it clear that passing the controversial communication law will be a priority in his new term. Critics cite this as one of their major concerns, as, in the absence of an organised and strong opposition, the media have become enemy number one for the government, and some fear repercussions for critical journalists and press freedom.
One of the main concerns regarding the new law has to do with the potential creation of a regulatory body that could sanction media over the contents they broadcast. The six-member Board for the Regulation and Development of Communication (which includes one government representative) would be in charge of delivering administrative sanctions, such as fines or mandatory apologies, to media organisations that broadcast content deemed discriminatory or that could incite to commit violent acts based on a discriminatory message.
Correa, however, has stated that his problem is not with journalists, but with the owners of “the big press”. He has, in fact, raised journalists’ minimum wage by 69.4%, and offered to subsidise the increase.
The ‘Big Country’
In his efforts to carry out an autonomous foreign policy, Correa has antagonised the US, international organisations (OAS, IMF, World Bank, etc.) and has a tense relationship with the UK, having granted asylum to Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, who is currently living in the Ecuadorian embassy in London. Correa’s Ecuador, meanwhile, has turned to Latin America and played an important role in the region’s integration in recent years.

Opening meeting of Celac in Caracas, Venezuela, December 2011 (photo Eduardo Santillán Trujillo/Ecuadorian government)
Ecuador joined the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) in 2009. Last year, after Paraguay’s expulsion from Mercosur, the Andean country also began talks to enter this regional bloc, and it has been an active member of the recently created Celac, seen as a regional alternative to the OAS and the US influence on it. During the attempted coup against Correa in 2010, Unasur played an important diplomatic role, as most South American presidents promptly united in Buenos Aires on that same day to express their support for the president and the democratic order in Ecuador.
This regional integration has been favoured by the ideological and personal links between Correa and other South American presidents, and will likely continue during Correa’s next term. During his victory speech last night, Correa dedicated the win to the “great country” of Latin America, and his electoral platform includes specific references to the issues the president considers urgent in terms of integration, such as consolidating the “new regional financial architecture” and creating a South American bank to provide financing for local projects without having to turn to traditional international lenders.
With Hugo Chávez’s health deteriorating and an uncertain future for Venezuelan politics, many analysts have also pointed at a potential new leadership role in the region for the Ecuadorian president. While he has stated he has enough worries dealing with his own country and does not intend to replace Chávez’s regional leadership, his fiery rhetoric keeps him in the spotlight.
“No One Will Stop This Revolution”
With renewed support and a more responsive parliament, the next four years are likely to see a deepening of the core policies of the Citizen’s Revolution.
Regional integration, media reforms, the eradication of poverty, land reform, and economic diversification are the main challenges facing Correa in his third and final term as president. His intention, as stated last night, is to “make the changes irreversible” and to put Ecuador well into the path of the ‘Sumak Kawsay (Good Living in Ecuadorian quechua) Socialism’.